After that hopeful period of stability and gentle rises, we dipped back into Extreme Fear on the FaG Index (though it’s back to Fear today).
Once again, it’s thanks to “worsening geopolitical tensions” – read “the US is run by lunatics”.
So, about six weeks into Year 2 of trying to earn through crypto, it’s already time to rethink my strategy.
Back at the start of Year 2, I had 3 simple rules:
- I want to make 6% profit per month in Trading
- I won’t touch Banking except at ATHs, when I’ll consider selling, waiting for a dip, buying back and carrying on
- I’m effectively ignoring Copy Trading
This recent dip and re-dip (and re-re-dip and…) encouraged me to look with brutal honesty at my numbers.
And, well…
I started this project because – to quote my profile – I’m awful at trading. I’ve got a bit better but I don’t do leverage, so I’m limited to gains within a coin’s price range. I don’t do memecoins, either, so those ranges are tighter.
6% per month in Trading is unrealistic.
I could smoke some Hopium and pretend I can do that but the longer-term numbers say different.
Looking back, HODLing has always come out significantly better for me when we’re talking months rather than weeks.
That was, after all, one of the main reasons for this whole setup.
Why I Suck At Trading
The problem with my approach to trading – aiming for small profits – is that crypto is volatile.
It’s OK if I buy too high, like I just did with that ETH position up over $2,350. I wait until prices go back up, then sell for the normal profit. The loss of time puts a dent in that 6% target, though.
And if I miss a pump (by taking a couple of percent profit), I miss out on gains that HODLing gives.
In a good month, I’ll happily admit that I can do 6% trading profit, especially in a sideways market where the ups and down are nicely defined.
But this is crypto and it’s volatile, so that’s an unlikely target nonetheless.
I could aim for bigger gains, say 6% on a single all-in trade (which I may try), though that puts serious stress on the monthly target.
Short version: I’m better off not trusting my trading competence.
So What Now?
None of my rules for Year 2 change.
I still enjoy Trading and make some profit, and I’ll still aim for 6%.
But I decided to rebalance funds, just before the extra $100 drop in ETH on Monday that kinda confirmed all these thoughts.
I converted all my banked BTC to ETH.
I moved 1 ETH ($2,200 at the time) from Trading to Banking. I updated my tracking to reflect that move.
The total amount of ETH gets me the top-tier interest at MEXC.
That means I have SOL earning 20% and ETH earning 15%, from which I will take out the interest every month, convert it to BTC, and move it to CoinEx to earn there (because the BTC rate is better), rebuilding my banked Bitcoin.
Bigger Banking, ready for when things pump.
Phew! Busy week!
